Giraffe & Co

September 16, 2022
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The Rand has weakened against the Euro even as Euroland’s inflation rate of 9.1% is outstripping SA’s rate of approximately 7.8%. The reasons for this are varied, extensive load-shedding inhibiting production, recessionary forces at play amongst our major trading partners and slowing economic growth. Aggressive Reserve Bank interest hikes create recessionary expectations without being effective...

August 16, 2022
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The Ukraine war continues to haunt global economies insofar as inflation and declining GDPs are concerned and so, for the first time since the 1970’s, stagflation has become a reality once again. Let’s consider the likely impact this will have on South Africa. The following chart (courtesy of Trading Economics) analyzes current inflation in Europe...

August 3, 2022
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Putin’s war in Ukraine passes the 5th month since it began on 24th February 2022 and its effects on the world’s economies remains pervasively severe. Inflation in Euroland is now at 8.9% compared with South Africa’s 7.4%. Interest rates increase as a response, a relatively ineffective tool given that inflation is being supply- rather than...

July 20, 2022
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The euro has fallen almost 12% from the start of 2022, this being almost exclusively due to Putin’s war in the Ukraine which has sent fuel prices rocketing, resulting ultimately in the inflation rate in Euroland  heading beyond 6%. The ECB’s response of hiking interest rates (another.25% hike expected) makes matters worse given that such...

July 4, 2022
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South Africa’s GDP increase of 1.9% in the first three months of 2022 brought the economy back to its pre-Covid19 size, reported Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke just under a month ago, also noting that during that quarter  7 out of 10 manufacturing divisions reported positive growth. Year-on-year growth to March 2022 reached 3% against Bloomberg’s forecast...

June 28, 2022
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In the last Insight’s I mentioned that South Africa was, temporarily, in a relatively good space amidst the current world’s economic crisis occasioned by Putin’s war in Ukraine, with many economies on the precipice of recession. Most significantly, the Rand has shown itself to be resilient, even in the face of astronomic increases in fuel...

May 9, 2022
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Our managing directors’ thoughts. The world is in an uncertain space: war in Europe, a Covid pandemic that lingers as the virus mutates, inflation accelerates across countries and reserve banks beckon further interest rates as a response. In South Africa, state worker unions are demanding a 10% wage increase together with other benefits in the...

April 25, 2022

The last three Insights focused on the war in Ukraine and the immediate effects thereof. Today we consider the further effects of war now post the 2-month mark together with the resurgence of Covid cases in China. Commodity prices have shielded the Rand in the first two months of the war but as stated in...

April 11, 2022
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The topic must remain the same for the moment given the enormous economic, political and (mostly) human impact of the war. Now, some 6 weeks after the start of this conflict, Putin’s forces have regrouped and are on the cusp of an increased assault in the eastern part of Ukraine, the Donbas region. For the...

March 28, 2022
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The implications of Putin’s war in Ukraine for us – Part 2 Our managing director’s thoughts The first of our MD’s Insights was released two weeks ago when Putin’s war in Ukraine was completing its 3rd week. In Putin’s planner’s minds, this was to be a quick, lightning war, which would create a Belarus-like Ukraine,...

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